Customer churn prediction software built on billing signals
Billing data shows trouble before the cancel arrives. A second failed attempt, a downgrade, removed seats, a refund request, a coupon that just ended. RevenueLeak reads these signals read-only from your billing system, turns them into a risk score per account and lists the accounts with the most recurring revenue at risk, so your team knows who to contact this week.
Why the score uses billing signals only
Churn software often depends on product events, support tickets and survey answers, which take engineering work to connect. Our score uses only what your billing system already records. That has limits, and we say so plainly, it does not see how often people log in unless your billing system stores usage. In return it needs no tracking code, works from the first sync and every point of the score can be traced to a line in your billing history.
- No tracking script and no product event setup.
- Works on Stripe, Paddle, Chargebee, Recurly, Shopify and WooCommerce data.
- Every point of the score links to the invoice, change or refund behind it.
The signals behind the risk score
Each signal adds points to the account. The weights are shown in the app and you can change them.
| Signal | What it means |
|---|---|
| Failed payment in the last 30 days | Involuntary churn risk, even if the payment later succeeded |
| Second failed attempt on the same invoice | High involuntary risk |
| Card expiring before the next renewal | Involuntary risk if no new card arrives |
| Downgrade to a smaller plan | Lower commitment, often a step before cancel |
| Seats or quantity removed | Shrinking use inside the account |
| Usage drop reported by billing | Lower metered usage than in earlier periods |
| Refund or dispute | Dissatisfaction recorded in billing |
| Coupon or discount ending soon | Price shock at the next renewal |
| Cancel scheduled at period end | The customer already chose to leave |
How the score is calculated
The score is a sum of weighted signals with a decay, so a failed payment from last week counts more than one from four months ago. It runs again after every billing sync, monthly on Starter, weekly on Growth and daily on Scale and Enterprise. The score is a ranking tool, not a forecast. We do not claim a prediction accuracy, because accuracy depends on your customers and your data. What we show instead is the reason for every score and the recurring revenue it puts at risk.
A ranked list of accounts to contact
The list sorts accounts by risk score multiplied by monthly recurring revenue, so a large account with a moderate score can sit above a small account with a high one. Each row shows the signals, the plan, the renewal date and the suggested step. On Starter the list holds up to 50 accounts per category, on Growth up to 500, and Scale and Enterprise list every account. Rows export to CSV, and from Growth up also to the PDF report.
What to do with a high score
The right step depends on the signals behind the score. Churn prevention software should point to an action, not only to a number.
- Payment signals lead to the failed payment recovery rules and the card updater.
- Downgrades and seat removals lead to a call or email from the account owner.
- Ending coupons lead to a renewal message that explains the new price in advance.
- Scheduled cancels lead to the save offers described on the reduce churn page.
Part of the full revenue audit
The risk score is not a separate product. It sits inside the same audit that measures failed renewals, expiring cards, legacy prices, unbilled upgrades, comped accounts, forever coupons, refunds and disputes, cancellations and abandoned checkouts. The customer retention software page shows how these parts work together for a retention team.
Questions about churn prediction
We do not claim an accuracy figure, the score ranks accounts by billing signals and shows the reason for every point.
No. The score uses only data your billing system already stores, read with read-only keys.
Yes. Every signal has a weight you can raise, lower or set to zero.
After every audit, monthly on Starter, weekly on Growth and daily on Scale and Enterprise.
Yes. The estimate on the home page runs without an account, and the risk score is part of the paid plans.